How We Calculate Your Numbers

Every metric in CasaWise.ai is derived from industry-standard formulas used by lenders, appraisers, and professional investors. This document explains exactly how each number is calculated, what assumptions are made, and how the three-scenario engine models risk.

1. Core Financial Formulas

The foundation of every analysis mortgage payments and amortization schedules calculated to the penny.

Monthly Mortgage Payment

Payment = P x r x (1 + r)^n / ((1 + r)^n - 1)

Where:
  P = Loan principal (purchase price x loan-to-value %)
  r = Monthly interest rate (annual rate / 12 / 100)
  n = Total payments (loan term in years x 12)

This is the standard amortization formula used by every mortgage lender. For a 0% interest rate, the payment is simply the principal divided by the number of months. If the principal or term is zero, the payment is $0 (all-cash purchase).

Amortization Schedule

For each month (1 through n):
  Interest   = Remaining Balance x Monthly Rate
  Principal  = Monthly Payment - Interest
  Balance    = Previous Balance - Principal (min $0)

The schedule tracks every payment split between principal and interest for the full loan term. The minimum $0 balance guard prevents floating-point rounding errors from producing a negative balance in the final months.

Total Cash Invested

Cash Invested = Down Payment + Rehab Cost + Closing Costs + Loan Points

Where:
  Down Payment  = Purchase Price - Loan Amount
  Closing Costs = Purchase Price x Closing Cost %
  Loan Points   = Loan Amount x Points %

This is your total out-of-pocket cost to acquire the property the denominator for Cash-on-Cash Return and Flip ROI.

2. Key Investment Metrics

Eight metrics that professional investors use to evaluate every deal. CasaWise computes all eight simultaneously.

Net Operating Income (NOI)

NOI = Effective Gross Rent - Total Operating Expenses

Effective Gross Rent = Monthly Rent x 12 x (1 - Vacancy Rate %)
Total Expenses = Fixed Costs + Revenue-Based Costs + CapEx Reserve

Fixed Costs     = (Property Tax + Insurance + HOA x 12) x Expense Modifier
Revenue Costs   = Gross Rent x (Maintenance % + Management %) x Expense Modifier
CapEx Reserve   = Gross Rent x CapEx % x CapEx Modifier

NOI is the income your property generates before debt service. Fixed costs (tax, insurance, HOA) and revenue-based costs (maintenance, management) are adjusted by the scenario's Expense Modifier. The CapEx reserve uses its own separate CapEx Modifier because in a worst case, big-ticket repairs tend to cost significantly more than everyday operating expenses.

Cash Flow, Cap Rate, CoC, DSCR, GRM, and the Rent Ratio

Annual Cash Flow    = NOI - Annual Debt Service
Monthly Cash Flow   = Annual Cash Flow / 12
Annual Debt Service = Monthly Mortgage Payment x 12

Cap Rate            = (NOI / Purchase Price) x 100
Cash-on-Cash Return = (Annual Cash Flow / Total Cash Invested) x 100
DSCR                = NOI / Annual Debt Service   (all-cash -> 99.9)
GRM                 = Purchase Price / Annual Gross Rent
Rent Ratio          = (Monthly Rent / Purchase Price) x 100

Cash flow is what you actually keep after paying the mortgage the single most important number for buy-and-hold investors. Positive cash flow means the property pays for itself and puts money in your pocket.

Cap rate measures return independent of financing: what the property earns as a percentage of its value, regardless of how you financed it. Higher cap rates generally indicate higher returns but often come with higher risk. A 6-8% cap rate is considered strong in most markets.

Cash-on-cash measures the actual return on your invested capital and, unlike cap rate, accounts for leverage. A deal with 20% down and a strong cash-on-cash return means your money is working harder than it would in stocks or bonds. Professional investors typically target 8-12%+.

DSCR tells lenders and you whether the property generates enough income to cover its mortgage. A DSCR of 1.0 is break-even and most lenders require 1.20+. Below 1.0 the property loses money before any maintenance surprise, which is a critical warning sign.

GRM is a quick-screening metric how many years of gross rent it takes to recoup the purchase price. Lower is better. It ignores expenses entirely, so treat it as a rough filter rather than a decision metric; under 12 generally signals a deal worth deeper analysis.

Rent ratio is the modern reading of the classic "1% rule" the most widely used quick filter in real estate investing, and largely out of reach at today's prices. Rather than pass/fail it, the Deal Score grades it on a curve where ~0.65% is par and approaching 1% is excellent.

Depreciation & Tax Savings

Annual Depreciation = (Purchase Price x 80% + Rehab Cost) / Depreciation Years
Year 1 Tax Savings  = (Annual Depreciation + Year 1 Interest) x Tax Bracket %

Projection years use the ACTUAL interest from the amortization schedule.

The IRS allows you to depreciate the building portion of your investment (typically 80% of purchase price land is not depreciable). Rehab costs are 100% depreciable as improvements. Combined with mortgage-interest deductions this can significantly reduce your tax liability, and the projection uses your actual amortization interest each year rather than a flat estimate.

3. Three-Scenario Engine

Every property is analyzed simultaneously under three scenarios. When market data is available for your location, the Base Estimate uses real local appreciation and rent growth rates.

FactorWorst CaseBase EstimateBest Case
Vacancyx1.8x1.0x0.5
Expensesx1.2x1.0x0.85
AppreciationMarket - 4%Market rateMarket + 2.5%
Rent GrowthMarket - 2%Market rateMarket + 1.5%
CapExx1.4x1.0x0.7

How Market Data Flows In

When CasaWise retrieves market intelligence for a location, it extracts the local 5-year appreciation rate and 1-year rent growth rate; these become the Base Estimate. With no market data, conservative defaults apply:

  • Default base appreciation: 3.0% per year
  • Default base rent growth: 2.5% per year
  • Worst-case appreciation floor: -2.0%
  • Worst-case rent growth floor: 0.0%

4. Year-by-Year Projections

For each year (1 through projection horizon):

  Property Value  = Previous Value x (1 + Appreciation Rate)
  Monthly Rent    = Previous Rent x (1 + Rent Growth Rate)
    Year 1: rent stays at input value (lease locked)
    Year 2+: rent grows annually

  Expenses (inflated each year):
    Property Tax  -> 2% per year
    Insurance     -> 3% per year
    HOA           -> 3% per year
    Maintenance / Management / CapEx -> track with current rent

  Equity        = Property Value - Loan Balance (from amortization)
  Annual Return = Cumulative Cash Flow + Appreciation + Cumulative Tax Savings

Year 1 rent is locked reflecting the reality that your first tenant signs at the listed rate. Expenses inflate independently; revenue-based costs scale with growing rent.

Future Capital Expenditures

You can schedule up to 2 future capital expenditure events (e.g. new roof in year 5, HVAC in year 8). These are deducted in the specified year, affecting cumulative returns and IRR.

5. Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

Cash Flow Series:
  Year 0:     -Total Cash Invested (initial outlay)
  Year 1..N:  Annual Cash Flow + Annual Tax Savings
  Final Year: + Net Sale Proceeds

Net Sale Proceeds = Property Value x (1 - Selling Cost %) - Remaining Loan Balance
Selling Cost % defaults to 6% (standard agent + closing costs)

Find the rate r where:  NPV = SUM[ CF(t) / (1 + r)^t ] = 0   (t = 0..N)

No closed-form solution exists - it is solved iteratively via
Newton-Raphson:   r(next) = r(current) - NPV(r) / NPV'(r)
repeated up to 100 iterations until NPV < $1.

This is the same approach used by Excel's IRR function and HP financial calculators. Results outside the -100% to +500% range are flagged unreliable and not displayed; if the solver fails to converge, CasaWise reports "N/A" rather than a misleading number.

6. Exit Strategy Analysis

Buy & Hold is the default strategy and runs on every tier. The two strategies below are selected on the Deal Inputs tab and are part of the Ultimate AI Investors tier as is the 70% Rule check, which only evaluates a fix-and-flip deal.

Fix & Flip

Flip Profit = ARV - Purchase Price - Rehab Cost
              - Selling Costs - Holding Costs
              - Loan Points - Closing Costs

Selling Costs = ARV x Selling Cost %
Holding Costs = (Monthly Mortgage + Prorated Tax + Prorated Insurance) x Hold Months
Flip ROI      = (Flip Profit / Cash Invested) x 100

ARV = After Repair Value (or Purchase Price + Rehab if not specified)

BRRRR (Buy, Rehab, Rent, Refinance, Repeat)

Refinance Loan Amount = ARV x Refinance LTV %
Cash Recouped         = Refinance Loan Amount - Original Loan Amount
New Monthly Payment   = PMT(Refinance Loan, Refinance Rate, 30 years)

The 70% Rule (Deal Insights)

Deal Insights evaluates flip deals against the industry-standard 70% Rule: your purchase price should be at or below 70% of the ARV minus rehab costs.

7. Deal Risk Score

The Deal Score grades five metrics on their own 0-100 curves and takes a weighted average. Each curve is piecewise-linear between three anchors a floor (scores 0), a midpoint (scores 50) and a ceiling (scores 100) and flat outside them. Anchors are calibrated to roughly a 7% rate environment, not to pre-2022 "cheap money" rules of thumb: our projections already deduct vacancy and CapEx reserves from income before scoring, so aspirational thresholds would penalize the same deal twice. If the IRR cannot be computed, its weight is redistributed across the other four components.

MetricWeightFloor (0)Midpoint (50)Ceiling (100)
IRR40%0%9%18%
Cash-on-Cash25%-5%2%6%
DSCR20%0.951.151.40
Cap Rate10%3.5%5.0%7.0%
Rent Ratio5%0.40%0.65%0.95%
ScoreBand
80-100Strong
50-79Fair
20-49Caution
0-19High Risk

8. Standing Assumptions

AssumptionValueRationale
Land / Building Split20% / 80%Standard IRS guidance for residential rental depreciation. Land is not depreciable.
Rehab Depreciation100%Rehab costs are building improvements and are 100% depreciable over the depreciation period.
Property Tax Inflation2% per yearNational average for annual reassessment increases.
Insurance Inflation3% per yearReflects rising premiums nationally, especially in disaster-prone regions.
HOA Inflation3% per yearHOA dues typically rise faster than general inflation.
Default Selling Costs6%Agent commissions (5-6%) plus seller closing costs. Applied to IRR terminal value and flip analysis.
BRRRR Refinance Term30 years fixedIndustry-standard refinance term for long-term hold investors.
Year 1 RentNo growthFirst-year rent is locked at the input value; growth begins in year 2.
All-Cash DSCR99.9With no debt service, DSCR is effectively infinite. Capped for display.
IRR Bounds-100% to +500%Results outside this range are considered unreliable and are not displayed.

What is User-Configurable vs. Fixed

The annual expense growth rates, the 80/20 land-building split, and the 30-year BRRRR term are fixed model assumptions. Your STARTING property tax, insurance, and vacancy rates are estimated city-by-city from your property's location not flat national defaults (fallbacks: approximately 1.1% property tax, 0.45% insurance, 8% vacancy). Every other variable management fees, CapEx, tax bracket, depreciation years, and all scenario modifiers is driven by your inputs and the three-scenario engine.

9. Data Sources

CasaWise pulls live data from authoritative sources we never use AI-generated numbers for financial rates.

Data PointSourceRefresh
30-Year Mortgage RateFRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data)Weekly, cached 6 hours
15-Year Mortgage RateFRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data)Weekly, cached 6 hours
Treasury RatesFRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data)Daily, cached 6 hours
Macroeconomic DashboardsGoogle Gemini AI + FREDCached 6 hours
Local Market IntelligencePerplexity Sonar AI (paid tiers)Cached 6 hours per location
GeocodingLocationIQ / OpenStreetMapReal-time lookup

10. Frequently Asked Questions

What is cap rate?

Cap rate (capitalization rate) is the annual return a property would generate if you bought it in cash. The formula is Net Operating Income ÷ Purchase Price, expressed as a percentage. A property with $24,000 NOI and a $400,000 price has a 6% cap rate.

How is cap rate calculated?

Take the property's annual gross rent (or gross rent equivalent if you are an owner occupier), subtract a vacancy allowance (typically 5-8%), then subtract all operating expenses except mortgage payments — taxes, insurance, management, maintenance, capital expenditures, utilities you pay, HOA. What remains is Net Operating Income. Divide that by the purchase price (or current market value, if you already own it).

What is cash-on-cash return?

Cash-on-cash return measures the annual pre-tax cash flow against the actual cash you put into a deal — down payment, closing costs, and any rehab. The formula is Annual Pre-Tax Cash Flow ÷ Total Cash Invested.

What is IRR (Internal Rate of Return)?

IRR is the annualized return on every dollar of capital invested in a deal, accounting for the timing of every cash flow from purchase through sale. It's the metric sophisticated investors use to compare opportunities that look nothing alike on paper — a stabilized rental against a value-add rehab, a 5-year hold against a 15-year hold, a syndication against a direct purchase.

What is NOI (Net Operating Income)?

NOI is the property's income after operating expenses but before debt service and taxes. It's the foundation under both cap rate and most lender underwriting decisions.

Is the 1% rule real?

The 1% rule says monthly rent should equal at least 1% of the purchase price — a $200,000 property should rent for $2,000/month. It was a useful screening shortcut in the 2010s. In most markets today, it's broken.

What is DSCR (Debt Service Coverage Ratio)?

DSCR is the lender's primary measure of whether a property's income can support its loan payments. The formula is NOI ÷ Annual Debt Service. A DSCR of 1.20 — the level lenders typically require — means the property generates $1.20 of NOI for every $1 of loan payment.

What is BRRRR?

BRRRR stands for Buy, Rehab, Rent, Refinance, Repeat — a strategy for recycling capital across multiple deals. The investor purchases a distressed property below market, renovates it to increase value, rents it for cash flow, then refinances against the new appraised value to pull most of their original capital back out for the next deal.

What is ARV (After Repair Value)?

ARV is the projected market value of a property after planned renovations are complete. It's the number that makes BRRRR and house-flipping math work — or fall apart.

What is GRM (Gross Rent Multiplier)?

GRM is a quick screening metric: Purchase Price ÷ Annual Gross Rent. A property priced at $300,000 with $30,000 in annual rent has a GRM of 10. Lower is generally better for cash flow; higher implies the buyer is paying more for appreciation than for income.